Well it’s been four weeks since
the Referendum vote and we have had a chance to reflect on the momentous
decision that the British public took. Many of you read the article I wrote on
the morning of the results. I had gone to bed the night before with a draft of
my Remain article nicely all but finished, to be presented, at just after 5am,
with the declaration by the BBC saying we were leaving the EU. I don’t think
any of us were expecting that.
If you want to read a copy of that original Post Brexit blog
post, please visit my blog https://huddersfieldproperty.blogspot.co.uk/
and scroll back to late June to find it. In this article I would like to take
my thoughts on from that initial article and now start to see the clearer
picture as the dust settles on the UK, but more importantly, the Huddersfield
Property Market.
In case you weren’t aware, the residents of the Kirklees
Council area were not against the National mood and voted as follows ..
Kirklees
Council Remain
Votes
98,485
(45.3% of the vote)
Kirklees
Council Leave
Votes
118,755 (54.7% of the
vote)
Kirklees Council
Turnout 70.7%
I have been reading there is some evidence
to indicate younger voters were vastly more likely to vote Remain than their
parents and grandparents and, whilst the polling industry's techniques may have
been widely criticised, following them getting both the 2010 General Election
and the recent Brexit vote wrong, anecdotally, many surveys seem to suggest
there was a relationship between age and likelihood to support leaving the EU.
Interestingly, the average age of a Huddersfield resident is
38.1 years old, which is below the national average of 39.3. What I do know
is that putting aside whether you were a remain or leave voter, the vote to
leave has, and will, create uncertainty and the last thing the British property
market needs is uncertainty (because as with previous episodes of uncertainty
in the UK economy – UK house prices have tended to go down).
Interestingly, when we look at the Homeownership rates in
the Kirklees Council area, of the 116,969 properties that are owned in the
Kirklees Council area (Owned being owned outright, owned with a mortgage or
shared ownership), the age range paints a noteworthy picture.
Age 16 to
34 homeowners 13,125 or
11.2% (Nationally 9.6%)
Age
35 to 49 homeowners 36,786
or 31.4% (Nationally 29.2%)
Age
50 to 64 homeowners 35,672
or 30.5% (Nationally 30.7%)
Aged
65+ homeowners 31,386
or 26.9% (Nationally 30.5%)
So, looking at these figures, and the high proportion of
older homeowners, you might think all the Kirklees Council area homeowners
would vote Remain to keep house prices stable and younger people would vote out
so house prices come down- so they could afford to buy?
But there's a risk in
oversimplifying this. The sample of the polling firms are in the thousands
whilst the country voted in its millions. Other demographic influences have
been at play in the way people voted, as early evidence is starting to suggest
that class, level of education, the levels of immigration and ethnic diversity
had an influence on the way the various parts of the UK voted.
So what I suggest is this – Don’t
assume everyone over the age of 50 voted ‘Leave’ and don’t assume most 20
somethings backed ‘Remain’; because many didn't!
.. and the Huddersfield Property
Market – well read my original article in the Huddersfield Property Blog and you
can make your own mind up.