Tuesday, 19 July 2016

88.8% of Huddersfield Homeowners are over 35 - The affect of their Brexit vote on the Huddersfield Property Market

Well it’s been four weeks since the Referendum vote and we have had a chance to reflect on the momentous decision that the British public took. Many of you read the article I wrote on the morning of the results. I had gone to bed the night before with a draft of my Remain article nicely all but finished, to be presented, at just after 5am, with the declaration by the BBC saying we were leaving the EU. I don’t think any of us were expecting that.

If you want to read a copy of that original Post Brexit blog post, please visit my blog https://huddersfieldproperty.blogspot.co.uk/ and scroll back to late June to find it. In this article I would like to take my thoughts on from that initial article and now start to see the clearer picture as the dust settles on the UK, but more importantly, the Huddersfield Property Market.

In case you weren’t aware, the residents of the Kirklees Council area were not against the National mood and voted as follows ..

Kirklees Council           Remain Votes              98,485             (45.3% of the vote)
Kirklees Council           Leave Votes                 118,755           (54.7% of the vote)
Kirklees Council Turnout         70.7%

I have been reading there is some evidence to indicate younger voters were vastly more likely to vote Remain than their parents and grandparents and, whilst the polling industry's techniques may have been widely criticised, following them getting both the 2010 General Election and the recent Brexit vote wrong, anecdotally, many surveys seem to suggest there was a relationship between age and likelihood to support leaving the EU.

Interestingly, the average age of a Huddersfield resident is 38.1 years old, which is below the national average of 39.3.  What I do know is that putting aside whether you were a remain or leave voter, the vote to leave has, and will, create uncertainty and the last thing the British property market needs is uncertainty (because as with previous episodes of uncertainty in the UK economy – UK house prices have tended to go down).

Interestingly, when we look at the Homeownership rates in the Kirklees Council area, of the 116,969 properties that are owned in the Kirklees Council area (Owned being owned outright, owned with a mortgage or shared ownership), the age range paints a noteworthy picture.

Age 16 to 34 homeowners    13,125    or      11.2%  (Nationally 9.6%)
Age 35 to 49 homeowners    36,786    or      31.4%  (Nationally 29.2%)
Age 50 to 64 homeowners    35,672    or      30.5%  (Nationally 30.7%)
Aged 65+ homeowners          31,386    or      26.9%  (Nationally 30.5%)

So, looking at these figures, and the high proportion of older homeowners, you might think all the Kirklees Council area homeowners would vote Remain to keep house prices stable and younger people would vote out so house prices come down- so they could afford to buy?

But there's a risk in oversimplifying this. The sample of the polling firms are in the thousands whilst the country voted in its millions. Other demographic influences have been at play in the way people voted, as early evidence is starting to suggest that class, level of education, the levels of immigration and ethnic diversity had an influence on the way the various parts of the UK voted.

So what I suggest is this – Don’t assume everyone over the age of 50 voted ‘Leave’ and don’t assume most 20 somethings backed ‘Remain’; because many didn't!

.. and the Huddersfield Property Market – well read my original article in the Huddersfield Property Blog and you can make your own mind up.




Tuesday, 12 July 2016

Population in the Huddersfield area set to rise to 486,400 by 2036

Huddersfield faces a predicament. The population is growing and the provision of new housing isn’t keeping up. With the average age of a Huddersfield person being 38.1 years (compared to the Yorkshire and Humber average of 39.4 years old and the national average of 39.4 years of age), the population of Huddersfield is growing at an alarming rate. This is due to an amalgamation of longer life expectancy, a fairly high birth rate (compared to previous decades) and high net immigration, all of which contribute to housing shortages and burgeoning house prices.

My colleagues and myself work closely with Durham University and they have kindly produced some statistics specifically for the Kirklees Metropolitan Borough Council area. Known as the UK’s leading authority for such statistics, their population projections make some startling reading…

For the Kirklees Metropolitan Borough Council area ... these are the statistics and future forecasts

2016 population           437,122
2021 population           451,142
2026 population           464,048
2031 population           475,860
2036 population           486,424

The normal ratio of people to property is 2 to 1 in the UK, which therefore means...

We need just under 25,000 additional new properties to be built
in the Kirklees Metropolitan Borough Council area over the next 20 years.

Whilst focusing on population growth does not tackle the housing crisis in the short term in Huddersfield, it has a fundamental role to play in long-term housing development and strategy in the town. The rise of Huddersfield property values over the last six years since the credit crunch are primarily a result of a lack of properties coming onto the market, a lack of new properties being built in the town and rising demand (especially from landlords looking to buy property to rent them out to the growing number of people wanting to live in Huddersfield but can’t buy or rent from the Council).

Although many are talking about the need to improve supply (i.e. the building of new properties), the issue of accumulative demand from population growth is often overlooked. Nationally, the proportion of 25-34 year olds who own their own home has dropped dramatically from 66.7% in 1987 to 43.8% in 2014, whilst 78.2% of over 65s own their own home. Longer life expectancies mean houses remain in the same hands for longer.

The swift population growth over the last thirty years provides more competition for the young than for mature population.  It might surprise some people that 98% of all the land in the UK is either industrial, commercial or agricultural, with only two percent being used for housing, which means one could propose expanding supply to meet a expanding population by building on green belt – that most Politian’s haven’t got the stomach to tackle, especially in the Tory’ strongholds of the South of England, where the demand is the greatest. People mention brownfield sites, but recent research suggests there aren’t as many sites to build on, especially in Huddersfield that could accommodate 25,000 properties in the next 20 years.

In the short to medium term, demand for a roof over of one’s head will continue to grow in Huddersfield (and the country as a whole). In the short term, that demand can only be met from the private rental sector (which is good news for homeowners and landlords alike as that keeps house prices higher).

In the long term though, local and national Government and the UK population as a whole, need to realise these additional millions of people over the next 20 years need to live somewhere. Only once this issue starts to get addressed, in terms of extra properties being built in a sustainable and environmentally friendly way, can we all help create a socially ecological prosperous future for everyone. For more thoughts on the Huddersfield Property market, please visit the Huddersfield Property Market Blog https://huddersfieldproperty.blogspot.co.uk/




Monday, 4 July 2016

175 days to find a buyer for your Huddersfield Property

I had a homeowner from Bradley email me the other day. She said she had been following my blog (the Huddersfield Property Market Blog) for a while and wanted to pick my brain on when is the best time of the year to sell a property. Trying to calculate the best time to put your Huddersfield property on the market can often seem something akin to witchcraft and, whilst I would agree that there are particular times of the year that can prove more productive than others, there are plenty of factors that need to be taken into consideration.

Even if you are putting your property on the market, you don’t know how long it will take to find a buyer - no crystal ball to help with that one. At the moment, the latest set of figures for all 30 estate agents in Huddersfield, show the average length of time it takes to find a buyer for any Huddersfield property is as follows ..

Detached                    171 days
Semi                            165 days
Terraced                     189 days
Flat                              166 days
Overall average          175 days

If we roll the clock back to January 2016, the overall average time it took to find a buyer (again using data from all of the 30 Huddersfield Estate Agents) was 226 days.

So, on the face of it, things have vastly improved over the last six months or so. Well, when I looked at the data going back to 2009, and every Spring since then, the average length of time it takes to sell a property drops between January and the Summer months, for it to rise on the run up to Christmas. For example ..

Winter 2009 - 263 days           Summer 2009  - 252 days

and in more recent times …

Winter 2013 - 279 days           Summer 2013  - 239 days
Winter 2014 - 243 days           Summer 2014  - 231 days
Winter 2015 - 231 days           Summer 2015  - 214 days
           
Coming back to the present, even if you placed your property on the market today in Huddersfield, if it takes you on average twenty five weeks to find a buyer, then you can expect solicitors and the chain to take an additional eight and twelve weeks after that, before you move. It comes down to personal choice as to when you place your property on the market. Children often affect the decision. On one side you might delay putting that for sale board in your front garden so you can move in the summer school holidays, but on the other side, you might want to move sooner to be in the catchment area of a preferred school, in plenty of time for the next academic year?

There are times of the year when it's better to sell, and times when waiting a little longer can pay off in the long run. In a nutshell, I would say this is the way of the seasons ..
WHEN THE MARKET?
Spring: Customarily there are more house-buyers as the Daffodils show themselves
Summer: Sellers may miss out on house-buyers being on holiday
Autumn: The enthusiasm for buying homes returns
Winter: Interest diminishes as festive period looms 


What this means to buyers and landlord investors is that they often pick up a bargain in later months of the year, as there is less competition from owner occupiers. So, whilst there are better months to achieve a quicker sale, the only piece of advice I can give to every home  owner and landlord in Huddersfield, is do the right thing for yourself, do your homework and buy (and sell) with both your head as well as your heart

For more thoughts on the Huddersfield Property Market – visit the Huddersfield Property Market Blog 
 https://huddersfieldproperty.blogspot.co.uk/